Urban Sprawl and Carbon Emissions Effects in City Areas Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Changsha City

Climate change is a global problem facing mankind, and achieving peak CO2 emissions carbon neutrality an important task for China to respond climate change. The quantitative evaluation of the trends urban energy consumption premise this goal. Therefore, from perspective expansion, paper analyzes complex relationship between mutual interactions feedback population, land economic growth, structure emissions. STELLA simulation software used establish system dynamics model urban-level effects, Changsha city case study. simulated outputs cover period 1949 2016. From 2016, Changsha’s total per capita have continuously grown. increased 0.66 Mt-CO2 60.95 Mt-CO2, while 1.73 t-CO2/10,000 people 18.3 Mt-CO2/10,000 people. analysis shows that industrial sector accounted largest proportion emissions, but it had gradually dropped 60% 70% about 40%. residential commercial services less than 25%, transportation fluctuated greatly in 2013 unit GDP clear downward trend, 186.11 t-CO2/CNY104 1.33 t-CO2/CNY104, showed two inflection points: one 1961 other 1996. general trend increase first, followed by decrease, then stabilization. There certain linear correlation compactness shape overall intensity, index has no with growth rate assessment constructed can be municipalities, results provide guidance future planning decision making.